NBA NEWS AND NOTES
Hawks-Bucks Preview
By Kevin Rogers
The lone Game 7 of the NBA's first round takes place with a familiar team, as the Hawks play their third straight Game 7 in the opening round, hosting the Bucks. Atlanta staved off elimination at the Bradley Center on Friday with an 83-69 victory, limiting Milwaukee to 11 third-quarter points.
Neither team shot well in Game 6, but the Hawks used a 19-2 run to open things up, while scoring their least amount of points in a victory since an 80-75 win at Dallas in early December. Jamal Crawford picked up the scoring slack with 24 points off the bench, which was ten more points scored than the entire Milwaukee bench. Joe Johnson bounced back with 22 points after fouling out late in Game 5, while Al Horford produced another double-double with 15 points and 15 rebounds.
The Bucks won't win many games with John Salmons and Brandon Jennings combining for 20 points on 6-28 shooting from the floor, including a dreadful 1-12 from three-point range in Game 6. Milwaukee has been limited to 92 points or less in four of the six games in this series, as the Bucks are averaging 89.6 ppg in three games at Philips Arena.
The Hawks have been pushed to the limit for the third consecutive season, but are hosting a Game 7 for the second straight year. Atlanta took top-seeded Boston to the edge back in 2008 as the home team won all seven games. The Celtics demolished the Hawks, 99-65 in the final contest, easily cashing as 14 ½-point 'chalk.' Last season, all seven games between the Hawks and Heat were decided by double-digits, as Atlanta eliminated Miami, 91-78 as 5 ½-point favorites.
The last time the Bucks faced a do-or-die game in the postseason was back in 2001, when Milwaukee actually played a pair of Game 7's. The Bucks, coached by George Karl, and led by the trio of Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell, ousted the Hornets in seven games in the second round to advance to the conference finals. Milwaukee went down to the finish with Philadelphia, but the Bucks were ousted by the Sixers in Game 7 by a 108-91 count.
Since the expansion of the first round series to the best-of-seven format in 2003, this is the 11th instance in which a series has been extended to a Game 7. The home team has been favored in the first ten contests, going 8-2 SU/ATS, with the two losses coming by Houston (to Utah in 2007) and Boston (to Indiana in 2005). The total hasn't been decisive either way, as the 'over' and 'under' have each hit five times. In nine instances, the home team was favored by 6 ½ points or less, as the Hawks are laying nine points on Sunday. The only club that has been favored by more than nine points was Boston in 2008 in the Celtics' drubbing of the Hawks.
Atlanta is a solid 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home off a road victory this season, while Milwaukee owns a 6-1 ATS mark on the road coming off a home defeat. The Bucks have been a strong 'under' play in this situation, finishing 'under' the total six of seven times. The Hawks are 16-7 ATS at Philips Arena against a team off a loss, including a 20-3 SU mark.
Atlanta is currently listed as a 9 ½-point favorite at most spots with the total set at 185 ½. The total is the lowest between these two teams since April 25, 1999, when the total was listed at 174 (game went 'under' as Hawks won, 85-70).
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
Let's look ahead to the next opponent for one of these two teams, the well-rested Orlando Magic. Stan Van Gundy's club went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the Bucks, while going 3-1 SU/ATS versus Atlanta. The Magic is 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven against the Hawks, with the lone loss coming on the Josh Smith buzzer-beating dunk on March 24. The last five against the Hawks have gone 'under' the total, as Orlando has held Atlanta to below 87 points in each of the previous six meetings. The Bucks have dropped nine straight meetings in Orlando, while going 2-7 ATS at Amway Arena in this span.
The Western Conference semifinals get going following the Hawks and Bucks as the Lakers host the Jazz at Staples Center (3:30 PM EST). L.A. and Utah each won its respective series in six games, as these two clubs meet for the third straight postseason. The Lakers are a perfect 14-0 SU the last 14 home meetings with the Jazz, while going 10-3-1 ATS. In 13 of those wins, Los Angeles has topped the 100-point mark, meaning Utah needs to step up its defense if the Jazz wants to march on the conference finals.